One of the recurring themes I've focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we've been experiencing since 2021. In short, economic booms lead to [...]
I had a funny interaction with someone recently talking about their retirement and the passive nature of the cash market. They were explaining how they were constantly worried about how much cash flow and principal [...]
Here's an interview from last week on Public.com where I discuss the macro landscape. Topics include: What is hyperinflation and is there a risk of it occurring in the USA? How banks create money and [...]
One of the stickier components of recent inflation data has been services inflation. In the CPI data this has been primarily driven by rents, but services in general have remained much stickier than other prices. [...]
The Strategy Lab category is a new feature we'll be adding here at Discipline Alerts. This will focus exclusively on portfolio construction and our views on how to optimize the portfolio construction and management process. [...]
This week's chart of the week shows the S&P Regional Bank index performance year-to-date. The Index is down -27% this year and -34% from its high. Pretty big numbers. Banks are obviously getting a lot [...]
We put together a brief video on the dynamics of what's occurring in the banking system presently. We cover: How the credit cycle typically unfolds Why banks are being hurt in this environment I hope [...]
This week's chart of the week shows the standard credit cycle and how it coincides with booms and busts across time. It typically works something like this: Economic expansion Economic expansion turns into economic boom [...]
One of the themes I've been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we're currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle [...]
We're continuing with the theme of time in this chart of the week. The last few years felt like a lifetime for many reasons. And the main driver of that feeling has been the Fed's [...]