Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Return of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). The Fed released an interesting study this week saying there was about a 9% chance of [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The Rise of Socialism. The knives are out in the NYC Mayoral election. The surprising surge in popularity of Zohran Mamdani has everyone around [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Tariff counterfactuals. The stock market has returned to where it was before the whole tariff fiasco happened. And now I am seeing people say [...]

Sorry for the radio silence here. My very final book edits are due June 30th so I've been burning the midnight oil making sure all the details are perfect. I've now read my own 250 [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week. 1) More on Exponential AI. Boy. I got a lot of feedback from last week's commentary on exponential AI. But I feel like [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Google's VEO 3 is Mind Blowing. So far AI has been interesting, but not earth shattering. I use ChatGPT dozens of times [...]

Did you hear that the bond market is crashing everywhere? That's right. If you open up the financial news today you'll see these three headlines as the top bond market news: My goodness. Sounds like [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Moody's Downgrades US Government Debt. After the close on Friday Moody's dropped a bombshell downgrade of US government debt from AAA to [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) The China Deal is Actually a Big Deal The White House announced the framework for a trade deal with China where the [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Should you replace your S&P 500 holding with Berkshire Hathaway? I got a great question from my friend Simon, a financial advisor [...]