I was on Schwab TV Wednesday discussing the economy, the Fed and the impact on portfolios going forward. Summary: The market got ahead of itself with the "soft landing" narrative when, in reality, the Fed [...]
Here's an interview I did with Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network from Wednesday discussing the macro outlook and the risks in the coming 12 months. My baseline assumption is that growth will continue to [...]
1) Why the high inflation reading is good news. I was on Schwab Network earlier this week discussing why, despite a few upside surprises, inflation is still in a downtrend. This sounds a bit counterintuitive, [...]
Here's my full interview from Wednesday following the big Fed decision on interest rates. The summary: The market seemed surprised by the Fed decision and especially the commentary that the Fed would not be cutting [...]
Is there a chance that the market has gotten way ahead of the Federal Reserve? Will core inflation continue to linger in 2024? Cullen Roche expects interest rate volatility, even with continued stabilization. The U.S. [...]
Cullen Roche joined Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network to discuss the future of inflation. He notes that inflation is lower than the Fed thinks highlighting the CPI ex-shelter component, which is now down to [...]
The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented pace in the last 18 months. And while it seems like they’ve been raising rates for a long time the reality is that they were playing catch [...]
This was a really fun interview I recently did with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau of Validea Capital. This is one of the first times (maybe the first time ever?) where I've laid out my [...]
Here's my recent interview with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade TV. We discussed my concept of bond escape velocity. You can watch the entire interview at this link or below, but the summary is this: [...]
In our full year outlook for 2023 we discussed the trimodal distribution set and probabilities of a smooth, bumpy and hard landing. We said the economy was most likely to be "bumpy" this year with [...]