Media – The Future of Inflation
Cullen Roche joined Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network to discuss the future of inflation. He notes that inflation is lower than the Fed thinks highlighting the CPI ex-shelter component, which is now down to [...]
Is the S&P 500 Broken?
One of the big stories of the year has been the lack of breadth in the performance of the US stock market. The so-called "magnificent 7" of Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla and Nvidia [...]
Weekend Reading – Is Inflation Dead?
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Is Inflation Dead? One of the main themes here this year was that the rate of inflation would gradually decline all year. And while [...]
Can the Fed Finally Declare Victory?
Tuesday's CPI report was a huge relief for the Federal Reserve and their fight against inflation. Headline CPI came in at 3.2% and core inflation came in at 4%. Expectations were for modestly higher inflation. [...]
Strategic Update – Q4 2023
Here's our latest strategic update given recent changes for Q4 and beyond. To learn more about our investment management service please contact us here. Macroeconomic Overview Our macroeconomic forecast for 2023 called for a year [...]
Weekend Reading: Goldilocks Employment?
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Goldilocks Labor Report. Friday's employment report came in weaker than expected, which is, weirdly, very good news for the economy and the Fed. [...]
Chart of the Week: Is the Fed About to Fumble?
The Fed has raised rates at an unprecedented pace in the last 18 months. And while it seems like they’ve been raising rates for a long time the reality is that they were playing catch [...]
Weekend Reading – Commuting, Credit and Fumbling in the Red Zone
Here are three things I think I am thinking about. 1) Work is for jerks. There was a viral rant going around Twitter all week from a young lady who hates her 9-5 job and [...]
Chart of the Week: Booming GDP?
Q3 GDP came in at a boomy 4.9%. The chart at the right breaks down the contributions by component. The primary drivers were inventories and personal consumption at 1.3% and 2.69%. The inventory rebuild is [...]
Weekend Thoughts – Inflation Hedges, Bonds & The “This is Fine” Economy
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) What's the best inflation hedge? There's always a lot of debate about what the best inflation hedge is. Is it gold, commodities, [...]