We put together a brief video on the dynamics of what's occurring in the banking system presently. We cover: How the credit cycle typically unfolds Why banks are being hurt in this environment I hope [...]
This week's chart of the week shows the standard credit cycle and how it coincides with booms and busts across time. It typically works something like this: Economic expansion Economic expansion turns into economic boom [...]
One of the themes I've been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we're currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle [...]
We're continuing with the theme of time in this chart of the week. The last few years felt like a lifetime for many reasons. And the main driver of that feeling has been the Fed's [...]
Friedrich Nietzsche's doctrine of eternal recurrence is the idea that time repeats itself in an eternal loop.1 It's interesting in the context of economic growth as we tend to think of economic growth across "cycles" [...]
If I had to distill our macro view into a single chart it would be this - house prices vs rents. COVID created an incredible disequilibrium in the housing market where house prices surged 40%+ [...]
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Cullen was on TD Ameritrade network (link here) discussing the interesting dynamics at work at this stage in the economic cycle. The interview includes thoughts on: Classic late stage credit booms How housing is being [...]
A COMMON SENSE APPROACH TO LOW FEE INDEXING Everyone has short, medium and long-term expenses. The problem with investing is that these time horizons involve uncertainty because we do not know the time horizons over [...]
We founded the concept of Countercyclical Indexing by answering some simple questions: Is a “balanced index” like a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio actually balanced? Does it make sense to rebalance back to a fixed weight allocation [...]