The Roche Recession Rule.

When this metric reads over 50% the US economy is in a recession.

Core PCE Inflation.

The Fed’s preferred inflation metric.

The Misery Index. 

This index measures inflation plus the unemployment rate. 

The Taylor Rule. 

This is a measure of how tight the Fed’s interest rate policy currently is. 

Average Hourly Earnings.

A measure of wage growth and labor market tightness

Modified Roche Rule (Alternative to the Taylor Rule). 

This is a modified Taylor Rule with bounded rate variance to reduce the band of the rate maintenance. This shows where the Fed Funds Rate would be if Cullen Roche was operating a rules based FFR

Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Unemployment Rate

Payroll Growth

Fixed Private Investment

Temporary Employment

A measure of employment that is often a leading indicator as temporary workers are the most fungible workers

New Manufacturing Orders

High Yield Credit Spreads

Total Loan Growth