Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I've updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Does the Negative GDP Mean We're in a Recession? We got a huge data dump on Wednesday including the first estimate of [...]

Here is a thing I think I am thinking about. 1) What is a Trade Deficit and is it Killing America? This week's video is about the trade deficit. I covered some basics about how [...]

We got a pretty interesting set of comments on Tuesday evening from Donald Trump. He confirmed two very important things: He's not going to fire Powell. He says the tariffs on China will be "come [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Fed Independence. The biggest news of this past week was the potential for the President to fire employees of independent agencies. That would include [...]

I did an FAQ video with readers about the current environment and what's going on. I tried to cover a lot of ground including: What caused the bond market spike in yields last week Why [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) PAUSE. What. Is. Happening. With tariffs? They say there are years where nothing happens and then weeks where years happen. Well, that's what this [...]

Here are three things I am thinking about that are really only one thing, of course. 1) Why Tariffs are Bad. I got back into making YouTube videos this weekend (click here for the link). [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) How Did We Get Here? I won't bore you with more of the tariff debunking that I did last weekend. If you [...]

Well. By now we can all see the impacts of the tariff announcements. We’re potentially on the verge of a significant and long lasting shift in the global trade system we’ve constructed for over 40 [...]