Q3 GDP came in at a boomy 4.9%. The chart at the right breaks down the contributions by component. The primary drivers were inventories and personal consumption at 1.3% and 2.69%. The inventory rebuild is [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) What's the best inflation hedge? There's always a lot of debate about what the best inflation hedge is. Is it gold, commodities, [...]

Mortgage rates officially hit 8% today. It's amazing considering mortgage rates were as low as 2.5% back in just 2020. But it isn't the high rate that is so alarming - it's the rate of [...]

Here's a Tweet (do we still call them Tweets?) from Paul Krugman which is getting a lot of flak. As I noted last month, he's mostly right, but just explaining this in a bad way. [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) SBF is not an effective altruist. Michael Lewis has been a literary hero of mine for decades. Liars Poker was a book [...]

Yields have been surging in recent weeks as markets price in rising credit risk and the likelihood of the Fed remaining higher for longer. Our view on credit risk hasn't changed this year - Fed [...]

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you're getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we've seen since [...]

We've been implementing the Defined Duration strategy in real-time for over a year now and the feedback has been tremendously positive (updated white paper is here). For those who aren't familiar, this strategy is based [...]

Paul Krugman wrote an interesting comment on Twitter this week stating that inflation has been defeated. The chart he posted showed inflation minus food, energy, shelter and used cars. He was mercilessly mocked on the [...]

Inflation bumped modestly higher in the August reading of CPI to a rate of change of 3.7%, up from 3.3%.1 This is well off the high of 8.9% in June of 2022, but also well [...]