Have Bonds Finally Reached Escape Velocity?
In the 1970s overnight interest rates went from a low of 3% to a high of 20%. This was an especially tough time to be a bond investor as the surge in interest rates caused [...]
Navigating Discipline
I recently joined Andrew Horowitz on the Disciplined Investor podcast to talk about...you guessed it - financial discipline. The interview starts at the 18:30 mark and we cover lots of ground in here including: What [...]
2023 – The Year That Gives Everyone a Narrative
This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history. The environment is so strange that there's a narrative for pretty much everyone. For instance: Permabears can argue: Industrial production has [...]
This Also Isn’t the 1940s
The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about a double bump in inflation. That is a scenario where inflation surges and then jumps higher again for various reasons (such as the Fed letting off the brakes [...]
What Should You Do When the Stock Market Booms?
The last two years have been quite the rollercoaster ride for financial markets. In 2022 the global stock market was down -18% and has rebounded +17% year to date. If you'd gone to sleep on [...]
Is Cash the Best Insurance Asset?
Insurance is a sensible part of any financial plan. Good insurance should be designed as a temporal tool. For instance, you buy life insurance during a specific time period in your life when your dependents [...]
What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Tell Us?
If you looked at a chart of the yield curve (YC) in the USA you'd be absolutely convinced that this indicator is a recession predictor. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting [...]
The Immaculate Disinflation
One of our big calls coming into 2023 was that this would be "the year of disinflation". I have to admit though - by some measures it's happening even faster than I expected. Inflation is [...]
The Credit Boom is Over
One of the most valuable lessons from understanding macroeconomics is that the credit system is an exponential growth system. Individuals and politicians love to talk about "paying down debt", but this is actually impossible at [...]
Chart of the Week: Fed Funds Futures
At the beginning of this year we said that the Fed would move to 5% on the overnight rate and sit tight for the remainder of the year as we navigate the uncertainty of the [...]