There's a popular joke in financial circles that says you can't eat risk adjusted returns. In other words, while it might be interesting mental gymnastics to calculate things like a Sharpe Ratio the statistical output [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about at the end of this weekend. 1) Team Transitory Won (NOT)! Economists Explaining Recent Inflation to Middle Class Consumers It's been over 3 years since [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) That BIG Employment Revision. The biggest news of the week was the -818K employment revision for 2024. This was the biggest revision [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Three Terrible Ideas That Won't Die. The Great Financial Crisis was wonderful because it got people interested in economics. And it was [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response [...]

Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about to start the week. Let's talk about three big asset classes.... 1) Commodities and an inflation resurgence. I think I've had a decent track record [...]

One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes [...]

The combination of the Great Financial Crisis period and the Covid era created some of the most interesting economic experiments in history. They also resulted in some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. [...]