What’s Happening to the Banking System?
In this post I am going to describe some of the dynamics of the banking panic from an operational perspective. I hope it helps everyone better understand what's going on today and what might play [...]
Chart of the Week – We’ve got Shrinkage (In Banks)
We've got shrinkage. In banks. One of the interesting secular trends that has been in place for 30+ years is bank shrinkage. The US banking system has consolidated from 14,000+ entities in the late 1970s [...]
What Happens if the US Government Defaults? (Video)
We ran a short scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling debates and how this might play out. We think the risk of an actual default is extraordinarily low, but it's useful to run through [...]
Chart of the Week: When Does the Free Lunch End?
It's been 20 years since I was so excited about cash. You can build a simple T-Bill ladder these days that yields 5%. It's state tax free and it beats virtually every money market fund [...]
Understanding the US Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status (Video)
We published a new video discussing the status of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. There has been an onslaught of media reports in recent weeks about how the US Dollar is declining [...]
The 60/40 Portfolio Is Alive and Well
Is the 60/40 portfolio "dead" or more alive than ever? In this piece we discuss the irrationally of these narratives and why we know 60/40 looks better than it has in a long time.
Chart of the Week: Commercial Real Estate Collapse
One of the recurring themes I've focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we've been experiencing since 2021. In short, economic booms lead to [...]
Cash – The Most Active Asset of them All
I had a funny interaction with someone recently talking about their retirement and the passive nature of the cash market. They were explaining how they were constantly worried about how much cash flow and principal [...]
Interview: The National Debt, Hyperinflation and Lessons from 2008
Here's an interview from last week on Public.com where I discuss the macro landscape. Topics include: What is hyperinflation and is there a risk of it occurring in the USA? How banks create money and [...]
Chart of the Week – Services Prices Going Down, Down, Down
One of the stickier components of recent inflation data has been services inflation. In the CPI data this has been primarily driven by rents, but services in general have remained much stickier than other prices. [...]