One of the most valuable lessons from understanding macroeconomics is that the credit system is an exponential growth system. Individuals and politicians love to talk about "paying down debt", but this is actually impossible at [...]
At the beginning of this year we said that the Fed would move to 5% on the overnight rate and sit tight for the remainder of the year as we navigate the uncertainty of the [...]
It’s been over 10 years since I published Understanding the Modern Monetary System, one of the most widely read papers in the SSRN research database. I published this paper because I was having trouble finding a [...]
In our full year outlook for 2023 we discussed the trimodal distribution set and probabilities of a smooth, bumpy and hard landing. We said the economy was most likely to be "bumpy" this year with [...]
Back in 2012 I wrote a short piece about how the ETF world was in the very early stages of eating up the mutual fund world. At that time the ETF world had just 12% [...]
Harry Markowitz passed away this past weekend. He was a giant in the financial industry. Arguably THE giant. Names like Buffett and Bogle might be more recognizable to the common investor, but Markowitz had more [...]
There has been a raging debate in the last 15 years about the efficacy of Monetary Policy. I've been very vocal about certain aspects of this discussion, especially surrounding QE. My general view is this: [...]
We always like to defer to simplicity when it comes to asset management. There are numerous reasons why simple portfolios beat complex portfolios: They're easier to manage and automate. They tend to reduce fees and [...]
This week's Federal Reserve decision was interesting mainly because there was no hint at a pivot. The market had been pricing in a rate cut this year, but the Fed made it pretty clear that [...]
Here's the replay of last week's Simplify Podcast in case you missed it. I joined Harley Bassman and Mike Green to discuss the macro landscape and where the economy might be headed. This was a [...]