Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole this morning and offered a measured message about the past, present and future path of inflation and interest rates. Here are some highlights and general conclusions from his remarks: [...]
The US real estate market is in an interesting situation. Activity in residential real estate has stagnated, but prices are holding up better than expected due to low inventories and a lack of forced sellers. [...]
Here's my recent interview with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade TV. We discussed my concept of bond escape velocity. You can watch the entire interview at this link or below, but the summary is this: [...]
In the 1970s overnight interest rates went from a low of 3% to a high of 20%. This was an especially tough time to be a bond investor as the surge in interest rates caused [...]
I recently joined Andrew Horowitz on the Disciplined Investor podcast to talk about...you guessed it - financial discipline. The interview starts at the 18:30 mark and we cover lots of ground in here including: What [...]
This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history. The environment is so strange that there's a narrative for pretty much everyone. For instance: Permabears can argue: Industrial production has [...]
The Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about a double bump in inflation. That is a scenario where inflation surges and then jumps higher again for various reasons (such as the Fed letting off the brakes [...]
The last two years have been quite the rollercoaster ride for financial markets. In 2022 the global stock market was down -18% and has rebounded +17% year to date. If you'd gone to sleep on [...]
Insurance is a sensible part of any financial plan. Good insurance should be designed as a temporal tool. For instance, you buy life insurance during a specific time period in your life when your dependents [...]
If you looked at a chart of the yield curve (YC) in the USA you'd be absolutely convinced that this indicator is a recession predictor. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting [...]