We've got shrinkage. In banks. One of the interesting secular trends that has been in place for 30+ years is bank shrinkage. The US banking system has consolidated from 14,000+ entities in the late 1970s [...]
We ran a short scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling debates and how this might play out. We think the risk of an actual default is extraordinarily low, but it's useful to run through [...]
It's been 20 years since I was so excited about cash. You can build a simple T-Bill ladder these days that yields 5%. It's state tax free and it beats virtually every money market fund [...]
We published a new video discussing the status of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. There has been an onslaught of media reports in recent weeks about how the US Dollar is declining [...]
Is the 60/40 portfolio "dead" or more alive than ever? In this piece we discuss the irrationally of these narratives and why we know 60/40 looks better than it has in a long time.
One of the recurring themes I've focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we've been experiencing since 2021. In short, economic booms lead to [...]
I had a funny interaction with someone recently talking about their retirement and the passive nature of the cash market. They were explaining how they were constantly worried about how much cash flow and principal [...]
Here's an interview from last week on Public.com where I discuss the macro landscape. Topics include: What is hyperinflation and is there a risk of it occurring in the USA? How banks create money and [...]
One of the stickier components of recent inflation data has been services inflation. In the CPI data this has been primarily driven by rents, but services in general have remained much stickier than other prices. [...]
The Strategy Lab category is a new feature we'll be adding here at Discipline Alerts. This will focus exclusively on portfolio construction and our views on how to optimize the portfolio construction and management process. [...]