One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation. This can be confusing because there's often an assumption that more jobs mean [...]
Someone emailed me the other day asking about my "muddle through" prediction of the last few years. They were pushing back on this idea that the US economy is just muddling along. I actually love [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the holiday weekend: 1) Core PCE is STILL trending in the right direction. Core PCE came in at 2.78% on Friday. This was the [...]
I wrote a fun new paper about the top 10 things in finance and economics that are my pet peeves. The article was inspired by the wonderful Cliff Asness paper from 2014 in which he [...]
There are a lot of questions about Fed policy these days and where things might be headed. Here are some commonly asked questions I've been getting lately: 1) Why is the Fed considering a rate [...]
1) Why the high inflation reading is good news. I was on Schwab Network earlier this week discussing why, despite a few upside surprises, inflation is still in a downtrend. This sounds a bit counterintuitive, [...]
Tuesday's CPI report came in a touch hotter than expected at 3.2% on the headline and 3.8% on the core. Analysts were looking for 3.1% and 3.7%. Bonds sold off on the news as investors [...]
Following the financial crisis I was very vocal that lower interest rates and QE would not cause high inflation. This went against the prevailing theory that lower interest rates and more reserves in the banking [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Passive Decisions of Active Index Funds. Super Micro Computer is being added to the S&P 500. This probably won’t impact the [...]
Don't worry. This isn't a post about how the 60/40 portfolio is "dead". We talked about how that was nonsense last year and a 60/40 portfolio was up 20% last year right when everyone was [...]