One of the persistent themes in recent years has been the high and increasing concentration in US stocks. In fact, the outperformance of US stocks has been driven almost entirely by large cap US tech [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. I kid. It's all one thing, but here are three thoughts on that one thing: 1) The Labor Report Was [Fill in the [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Is the Disinflation Trend about to Gain Momentum Again? Friday's PCE report showed further improvement in inflation down to 2.75% compared to [...]

The most interesting debate going on these days is about consumer sentiment. The US economy has outperformed expectations by most metrics. The stock market is booming, real GDP is at potential trend, wages are growing [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Is QE Debt "Monetization"? It's been 15 years since I first said that the Fed wasn't "monetizing the debt". My original work [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) CPI comes in soft Wednesday's CPI report was a big relief for the Fed after 4 consecutive upside surprises. The key metric [...]

Here are three things I think am thinking about this week. 1) Economic Tightness and Easing Demand. Monday's Senior Loan Survey from the Fed showed continued tight lending conditions. There's been a lot of debate [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) The labor market continues to soften. Friday's employment report was just right. Not too hot and not too cold. But it also [...]

Wednesday's Fed decision was largely unsurprising. But the most important data point of the day came long before the Fed decision. The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when [...]