Chart of the Week: ISM Services Employment Collapse
This is a chart that people will be talking about for a long time now. This shows the ISM Services Employment Index. Services have been extremely strong for the last few years and it's been [...]
3 Lessons From 2023
Investing is a never ending learning experience. I think that's one of the things that makes the financial markets so fascinating. Just when you feel like you know everything the markets and the economy will [...]
Media: The Outlook for 2024 and Diversifying Across Time
Is there a chance that the market has gotten way ahead of the Federal Reserve? Will core inflation continue to linger in 2024? Cullen Roche expects interest rate volatility, even with continued stabilization. The U.S. [...]
Year End Financial Planning Checklist
Financial discipline is largely about organization and that begins with a proper set of goals to achieve over time. The end of the year is an ideal time to start planning for the year ahead [...]
Did Interest Rates Just Peak?
It’s been a doozy of a few months for the bond markets as 10 year interest rates surged from 4% during the Summer to over 5% in October and then round tripped all the way [...]
Weekend Reading – 3 Things
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Another Good Labor Report. Friday’s employment report showed another solid gain in employment. The underlying data remained a bit mixed, but on the whole [...]
Media – The Future of Inflation
Cullen Roche joined Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network to discuss the future of inflation. He notes that inflation is lower than the Fed thinks highlighting the CPI ex-shelter component, which is now down to [...]
Is the S&P 500 Broken?
One of the big stories of the year has been the lack of breadth in the performance of the US stock market. The so-called "magnificent 7" of Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Tesla and Nvidia [...]
Weekend Reading – Is Inflation Dead?
Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Is Inflation Dead? One of the main themes here this year was that the rate of inflation would gradually decline all year. And while [...]
Can the Fed Finally Declare Victory?
Tuesday's CPI report was a huge relief for the Federal Reserve and their fight against inflation. Headline CPI came in at 3.2% and core inflation came in at 4%. Expectations were for modestly higher inflation. [...]