Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Gold as insurance. I always like it when people say things that I have said in the past. So I was pleasantly [...]

I want to write a short piece given the events of this week, which highlighted how deep the divide is in the USA. I am not going to talk about politics. That's not what I [...]

Here’s an interview I did with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau on the Excess Returns podcast. We cover a huge amount of ground in this one including: • Updated economic outlook• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and [...]

This weekend I am thinking a lot about independence. Specifically, financial independence, Fed independence and labor independence. Let's get into it. 1) Financial Independence Through Asset-Liability Matching. If you're a regular here you know that [...]

Let me start by saying that I love Ray Dalio. I dedicated an entire chapter in my forthcoming book to his work on portfolio construction. But like all macro investing strategists he's going to get [...]

1) The Bull Market in Grifters. Joe Weisenthal's latest newsletter was fantastic and in it he makes an interesting point: We live in an age of extreme grift. This is obvious. There are people out [...]

I just spent a week in Hawaii - the first real vacation I've had in years, but my brain didn't stop racing the whole time. I am the worst vacationer and here are the three [...]

Okay, it's one thing inside of three things, but they're also three kind of different things related to one broader thing. I might be overthinking this. 1) The Labor Market is Very Soft. But Why? [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Another Frothy Bubblet Growing? While this is not exactly like the Covid induced 2021 speculative market, there are signs that something similar is occurring [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Macro Dashboard. I am working on a huge software update for the Defined Duration strategy, but in the meantime I've [...]