Okay, it's one thing inside of three things, but they're also three kind of different things related to one broader thing. I might be overthinking this. 1) The Labor Market is Very Soft. But Why? [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Another Frothy Bubblet Growing? While this is not exactly like the Covid induced 2021 speculative market, there are signs that something similar is occurring [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Macro Dashboard. I am working on a huge software update for the Defined Duration strategy, but in the meantime I've [...]

This is actually one thing with three very important conclusions. I was reading this article in the WSJ (h/t Ben Carlson) about people who make over $250,000 a year who don't feel rich. A common [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Return of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). The Fed released an interesting study this week saying there was about a 9% chance of [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The Rise of Socialism. The knives are out in the NYC Mayoral election. The surprising surge in popularity of Zohran Mamdani has everyone around [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Tariff counterfactuals. The stock market has returned to where it was before the whole tariff fiasco happened. And now I am seeing people say [...]

Sorry for the radio silence here. My very final book edits are due June 30th so I've been burning the midnight oil making sure all the details are perfect. I've now read my own 250 [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week. 1) More on Exponential AI. Boy. I got a lot of feedback from last week's commentary on exponential AI. But I feel like [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Google's VEO 3 is Mind Blowing. So far AI has been interesting, but not earth shattering. I use ChatGPT dozens of times [...]