Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Tariff counterfactuals. The stock market has returned to where it was before the whole tariff fiasco happened. And now I am seeing people say [...]

Sorry for the radio silence here. My very final book edits are due June 30th so I've been burning the midnight oil making sure all the details are perfect. I've now read my own 250 [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week. 1) More on Exponential AI. Boy. I got a lot of feedback from last week's commentary on exponential AI. But I feel like [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Google's VEO 3 is Mind Blowing. So far AI has been interesting, but not earth shattering. I use ChatGPT dozens of times [...]

Did you hear that the bond market is crashing everywhere? That's right. If you open up the financial news today you'll see these three headlines as the top bond market news: My goodness. Sounds like [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Moody's Downgrades US Government Debt. After the close on Friday Moody's dropped a bombshell downgrade of US government debt from AAA to [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) The China Deal is Actually a Big Deal The White House announced the framework for a trade deal with China where the [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Should you replace your S&P 500 holding with Berkshire Hathaway? I got a great question from my friend Simon, a financial advisor [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Roche Recession Rule. I've updated the very, very famous Roche Recession Rule, which was very famously named by me and [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Does the Negative GDP Mean We're in a Recession? We got a huge data dump on Wednesday including the first estimate of [...]