We've been implementing the Defined Duration strategy in real-time for over a year now and the feedback has been tremendously positive (updated white paper is here). For those who aren't familiar, this strategy is based [...]
Paul Krugman wrote an interesting comment on Twitter this week stating that inflation has been defeated. The chart he posted showed inflation minus food, energy, shelter and used cars. He was mercilessly mocked on the [...]
Inflation bumped modestly higher in the August reading of CPI to a rate of change of 3.7%, up from 3.3%.1 This is well off the high of 8.9% in June of 2022, but also well [...]
This was a really fun interview I recently did with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau of Validea Capital. This is one of the first times (maybe the first time ever?) where I've laid out my [...]
As I've previously discussed, this is an environment where there's a narrative for everyone. The data over the last few years is so unclear and so politically polarizing that you can formulate whatever conclusion you [...]
I've previously referred to the current interest rate structure in the banking system as a "golden guillotine". That is, while low interest rates are "golden handcuffs" for borrowers who locked in long duration short rates, [...]
A consistent debate in economic circles in recent years has waged around the "tightness" in the labor market. That is, if labor has too much negotiating power they can dictate prices and that might put [...]
Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole this morning and offered a measured message about the past, present and future path of inflation and interest rates. Here are some highlights and general conclusions from his remarks: [...]
The US real estate market is in an interesting situation. Activity in residential real estate has stagnated, but prices are holding up better than expected due to low inventories and a lack of forced sellers. [...]
Here's my recent interview with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade TV. We discussed my concept of bond escape velocity. You can watch the entire interview at this link or below, but the summary is this: [...]