There’s (Still) No Pivot Coming
This week's Federal Reserve decision was interesting mainly because there was no hint at a pivot. The market had been pricing in a rate cut this year, but the Fed made it pretty clear that [...]
Keeping It Simple – Transitory or Purgatory?
Here's the replay of last week's Simplify Podcast in case you missed it. I joined Harley Bassman and Mike Green to discuss the macro landscape and where the economy might be headed. This was a [...]
Should You Worry About “Recession” Risk?
There has been a heated debate in recent months about the risk of recession. On one side you have optimists who have been saying that the US economy remains robust and on the other side [...]
Chart of the Week – Concentration Risk in Stocks
Here's a great chart from DFA (thanks to Meb Faber for highlighting it on Twitter).1 It shows the average annualized outperformance of stocks after they've become one of the largest top 10 in the S&P [...]
Keeping it Simple – Transitory or Purgatory?
I want to invite you to a live recording of the Simplify Asset Management podcast, Keeping It Simple. We'll be recording next Thursday at 4:30 ET after the market closes. I'll be joining Harley Bassman [...]
Equal Weight vs Market Cap Weight? Which Should You Choose?
There's been a lot of chatter this year about the breadth of the stock market's performance. While the S&P 500 is up 8.5% this year the majority of that performance is being driven by just [...]
Chart of the Week – Housing’s Remarkable Resilience
It's only May, but if I had to pick a chart of the year it would be housing stocks. In fact, housing as a whole has been remarkably resilient this year. If you'd told me [...]
Chart of the Week – Muddle Through Continues
The muddle through trend is strong. Or should I say weak? We got two big data points this morning on the economy and both pointed to sluggish trends in growth. Retail sales and industrial production [...]
Easing Concerns Over the Debt Ceiling
I've spent a lot of time in the last few weeks talking to investors trying to ease concerns over the debt ceiling and default. This piece will provide a brief description of how I view [...]
Chart of the Week – Disinflation is Becoming Entrenched
One of our big themes for this year was that it would be the "year of disinflation". That is, a falling rate of positive inflation. And so far that appears to be dead on. The [...]