The muddle through trend is strong. Or should I say weak? We got two big data points this morning on the economy and both pointed to sluggish trends in growth. Retail sales and industrial production [...]

I've spent a lot of time in the last few weeks talking to investors trying to ease concerns over the debt ceiling and default. This piece will provide a brief description of how I view [...]

One of our big themes for this year was that it would be the "year of disinflation". That is, a falling rate of positive inflation. And so far that appears to be dead on. The [...]

In this post I am going to describe some of the dynamics of the banking panic from an operational perspective. I hope it helps everyone better understand what's going on today and what might play [...]

We've got shrinkage. In banks. One of the interesting secular trends that has been in place for 30+ years is bank shrinkage. The US banking system has consolidated from 14,000+ entities in the late 1970s [...]

We ran a short scenario analysis of the US debt ceiling debates and how this might play out. We think the risk of an actual default is extraordinarily low, but it's useful to run through [...]

It's been 20 years since I was so excited about cash. You can build a simple T-Bill ladder these days that yields 5%. It's state tax free and it beats virtually every money market fund [...]

We published a new video discussing the status of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency. There has been an onslaught of media reports in recent weeks about how the US Dollar is declining [...]

One of the recurring themes I've focused on in recent years is the inherently long nature of a credit bust cycle like the one we've been experiencing since 2021. In short, economic booms lead to [...]