What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Tell Us?
If you looked at a chart of the yield curve (YC) in the USA you'd be absolutely convinced that this indicator is a recession predictor. After all, it has a nearly flawless track record predicting [...]
The Immaculate Disinflation
One of our big calls coming into 2023 was that this would be "the year of disinflation". I have to admit though - by some measures it's happening even faster than I expected. Inflation is [...]
The Credit Boom is Over
One of the most valuable lessons from understanding macroeconomics is that the credit system is an exponential growth system. Individuals and politicians love to talk about "paying down debt", but this is actually impossible at [...]
Chart of the Week: Fed Funds Futures
At the beginning of this year we said that the Fed would move to 5% on the overnight rate and sit tight for the remainder of the year as we navigate the uncertainty of the [...]
Understanding the Modern Monetary System – Updated
It’s been over 10 years since I published Understanding the Modern Monetary System, one of the most widely read papers in the SSRN research database. I published this paper because I was having trouble finding a [...]
Will A “Trampoline Landing” Increase Economic Risks?
In our full year outlook for 2023 we discussed the trimodal distribution set and probabilities of a smooth, bumpy and hard landing. We said the economy was most likely to be "bumpy" this year with [...]
Chart of the Week – the ETF Bull Market is Still Early
Back in 2012 I wrote a short piece about how the ETF world was in the very early stages of eating up the mutual fund world. At that time the ETF world had just 12% [...]
A Tribute to Harry Markowitz
Harry Markowitz passed away this past weekend. He was a giant in the financial industry. Arguably THE giant. Names like Buffett and Bogle might be more recognizable to the common investor, but Markowitz had more [...]
Chart of the Week – Is Monetary Policy Working?
There has been a raging debate in the last 15 years about the efficacy of Monetary Policy. I've been very vocal about certain aspects of this discussion, especially surrounding QE. My general view is this: [...]
Fund of Funds – When Simple Isn’t Better
We always like to defer to simplicity when it comes to asset management. There are numerous reasons why simple portfolios beat complex portfolios: They're easier to manage and automate. They tend to reduce fees and [...]