Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Are Short-term Rates Forecasting a Recession? Here's a chart that's been floating around a lot and I think it communicates a very [...]

Here is the ONE thing I think I am thinking THREE times this week. If you prefer video you can also see my thoughts on the big rate cut from my interview on Schwab Network [...]

The big question of the week is 25 or 50? No, we're not talking about the age of Leonardo DiCaprio's next girlfriend (obviously 25). We don't have time to think about about girlfriends (or boyfriends) [...]

You're getting this on a Friday, but when we GAAP adjust the holiday week and Cullen writing this on a Thursday night it basically equals a midweek note. 1) What Deradicalized You? I really liked [...]

There's a popular joke in financial circles that says you can't eat risk adjusted returns. In other words, while it might be interesting mental gymnastics to calculate things like a Sharpe Ratio the statistical output [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about at the end of this weekend. 1) Team Transitory Won (NOT)! Economists Explaining Recent Inflation to Middle Class Consumers It's been over 3 years since [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) That BIG Employment Revision. The biggest news of the week was the -818K employment revision for 2024. This was the biggest revision [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Three Terrible Ideas That Won't Die. The Great Financial Crisis was wonderful because it got people interested in economics. And it was [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response [...]