The Roche Recession Rule.

When this metric reads over 50% the US economy is in a recession.

Core PCE Inflation.

The Fed’s preferred inflation metric.

The Misery Index. 

This index measures inflation plus the unemployment rate. 

The Taylor Rule. 

This is a measure of how tight the Fed’s interest rate policy currently is. 

Average Hourly Earnings.

A measure of wage growth and labor market tightness

Modified Taylor Rule (Alternative to the Taylor Rule). 

This is a modified Taylor Rule with bounded rate variance to reduce the band of the rate maintenance. This model would bound the FFR between a min of 2% and max of 5% to reduce the variance in the band. This shows where the Fed Funds Rate would be if Cullen Roche was operating a rules based FFR

Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

Unemployment Rate