How Cullen Roche Allocates His Personal Assets
This was a really fun interview I recently did with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau of Validea Capital. This is one of the first times (maybe the first time ever?) where I've laid out my [...]
Why Are Consumers so Depressed?
As I've previously discussed, this is an environment where there's a narrative for everyone. The data over the last few years is so unclear and so politically polarizing that you can formulate whatever conclusion you [...]
The Labor Market – Goldilocks or Golden Guillotine?
I've previously referred to the current interest rate structure in the banking system as a "golden guillotine". That is, while low interest rates are "golden handcuffs" for borrowers who locked in long duration short rates, [...]
The Labor Market is Not Tight
A consistent debate in economic circles in recent years has waged around the "tightness" in the labor market. That is, if labor has too much negotiating power they can dictate prices and that might put [...]
Jackson Hole – The Future of Inflation and Interest Rates
Jerome Powell spoke at Jackson Hole this morning and offered a measured message about the past, present and future path of inflation and interest rates. Here are some highlights and general conclusions from his remarks: [...]
Chart of the Week – Total US Real Estate Prices
The US real estate market is in an interesting situation. Activity in residential real estate has stagnated, but prices are holding up better than expected due to low inventories and a lack of forced sellers. [...]
TD Ameritrade TV – Discussing Bond Escape Velocity
Here's my recent interview with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade TV. We discussed my concept of bond escape velocity. You can watch the entire interview at this link or below, but the summary is this: [...]
Have Bonds Finally Reached Escape Velocity?
In the 1970s overnight interest rates went from a low of 3% to a high of 20%. This was an especially tough time to be a bond investor as the surge in interest rates caused [...]
Navigating Discipline
I recently joined Andrew Horowitz on the Disciplined Investor podcast to talk about...you guessed it - financial discipline. The interview starts at the 18:30 mark and we cover lots of ground in here including: What [...]
2023 – The Year That Gives Everyone a Narrative
This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history. The environment is so strange that there's a narrative for pretty much everyone. For instance: Permabears can argue: Industrial production has [...]