Here’s an interview I did with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau on the Excess Returns podcast. We cover a huge amount of ground in this one including: • Updated economic outlook• Inflation outlook, tariffs, and [...]

1) The Bull Market in Grifters. Joe Weisenthal's latest newsletter was fantastic and in it he makes an interesting point: We live in an age of extreme grift. This is obvious. There are people out [...]

I just spent a week in Hawaii - the first real vacation I've had in years, but my brain didn't stop racing the whole time. I am the worst vacationer and here are the three [...]

Okay, it's one thing inside of three things, but they're also three kind of different things related to one broader thing. I might be overthinking this. 1) The Labor Market is Very Soft. But Why? [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Another Frothy Bubblet Growing? While this is not exactly like the Covid induced 2021 speculative market, there are signs that something similar is occurring [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Updating the Macro Dashboard. I am working on a huge software update for the Defined Duration strategy, but in the meantime I've [...]

This is actually one thing with three very important conclusions. I was reading this article in the WSJ (h/t Ben Carlson) about people who make over $250,000 a year who don't feel rich. A common [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Return of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). The Fed released an interesting study this week saying there was about a 9% chance of [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) The Rise of Socialism. The knives are out in the NYC Mayoral election. The surprising surge in popularity of Zohran Mamdani has everyone around [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Tariff counterfactuals. The stock market has returned to where it was before the whole tariff fiasco happened. And now I am seeing people say [...]