The most interesting debate going on these days is about consumer sentiment. The US economy has outperformed expectations by most metrics. The stock market is booming, real GDP is at potential trend, wages are growing [...]
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Is QE Debt "Monetization"? It's been 15 years since I first said that the Fed wasn't "monetizing the debt". My original work [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) CPI comes in soft Wednesday's CPI report was a big relief for the Fed after 4 consecutive upside surprises. The key metric [...]
Here's an interview I did with Oliver Renick on the Schwab Network from Wednesday discussing the macro outlook and the risks in the coming 12 months. My baseline assumption is that growth will continue to [...]
Here are three things I think am thinking about this week. 1) Economic Tightness and Easing Demand. Monday's Senior Loan Survey from the Fed showed continued tight lending conditions. There's been a lot of debate [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) The labor market continues to soften. Friday's employment report was just right. Not too hot and not too cold. But it also [...]
Wednesday's Fed decision was largely unsurprising. But the most important data point of the day came long before the Fed decision. The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when [...]
The Japanese Yen has been undergoing quite the roller-coaster ride in recent weeks and is now down over 45% vs the USD since 2020. With their large government debt load many investors are wondering if [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about over the weekend: 1) WAR! The situation in the Middle East is getting more and more uncertain as Iran and Israel trade barbs. I guess [...]
Well, I had a great time earlier this year as I was able to mock certain people for thinking we'd get a rate cut in March or April. But now it's my turn to be [...]