You're getting this on a Friday, but when we GAAP adjust the holiday week and Cullen writing this on a Thursday night it basically equals a midweek note. 1) What Deradicalized You? I really liked [...]

There's a popular joke in financial circles that says you can't eat risk adjusted returns. In other words, while it might be interesting mental gymnastics to calculate things like a Sharpe Ratio the statistical output [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about at the end of this weekend. 1) Team Transitory Won (NOT)! Economists Explaining Recent Inflation to Middle Class Consumers It's been over 3 years since [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) That BIG Employment Revision. The biggest news of the week was the -818K employment revision for 2024. This was the biggest revision [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Three Terrible Ideas That Won't Die. The Great Financial Crisis was wonderful because it got people interested in economics. And it was [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response [...]

Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about to start the week. Let's talk about three big asset classes.... 1) Commodities and an inflation resurgence. I think I've had a decent track record [...]

One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes [...]