Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about to start the week. Let's talk about three big asset classes.... 1) Commodities and an inflation resurgence. I think I've had a decent track record [...]

One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes [...]

The combination of the Great Financial Crisis period and the Covid era created some of the most interesting economic experiments in history. They also resulted in some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. [...]

Thursday's CPI report was a big downside surprise as more signs of disinflation appeared across the economy. Core CPI rose 0.06% in June which brought the annualized rate to 3.27%. That's the lowest rate since [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) All About Jobs. In an interview with Schwab earlier last week I said that the future path of Fed policy will be [...]

What a week. Here are three things I think I am thinking about. 1) The (gulp) election. Thursday's Presidential debate was stunning. I jokingly tweeted in advance that we were all going to tune in [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about: 1) The Concentration of the Mag 7 is Both Good and Bad. In a recent piece I discussed the risk of concentration in the US [...]

I am ready to call it. The Fed should cut rates. July would be the right time to start in my opinion. To be clear, I don't think they will do this. I still think [...]

One of the persistent themes in recent years has been the high and increasing concentration in US stocks. In fact, the outperformance of US stocks has been driven almost entirely by large cap US tech [...]