I was on Schwab TV Wednesday discussing the economy, the Fed and the impact on portfolios going forward. Summary:

  • The market got ahead of itself with the “soft landing” narrative when, in reality, the Fed is far from being able to declare victory.
  • The economic plane was slowed by the rate hikes, but is not currently stalling.
  • The trends are mostly negative and so the Fed can’t keep flying the plane at this low altitude and slow speed or the economy will stall.
  • No need for emergency cuts or inter-meeting cuts, but the Fed does need to initiate a rate cut cycle at the September meeting.
  • Bonds: fixed income investors should consider front running the Fed and extending maturities.
  • Stocks: for long-term investors any volatility is a buying opportunity. For short-term investors the next 6-9 months are fraught with risk.

Watch the full interview here: